Tool #3: Scenario Planning

Scenario planning is a tool that allows you to get one step ahead of the competition. Instead of focusing on existing requirements in the market, you plan for the change. Scenario thinking is useful in a disruptive market. Especially for major technology shifts or where the fundamentals of the market is radically changed. Normally three or four Scenarios are created. Then you evaluate the likelihood of the scenarios.

It is perfect tool to combine with the DIBB-model ((Data > Insights > Belief > Bet). In Scenario context:
  1. Collect relevant Data
  2. Conceptualize you data into Scenarios (Insights)
  3. Make a choice in what Scenario you believe in
  4. Make your bet and plan your actions for the Scenario you are choose
Scenario Thinking can be painful. It requires insightful and analytical individuals to create relevant scenarios. You could start with Lightweight scenarios. Then use the perspective of existing customers and users and create scenarios for them. The use of lightweight scenarios drastically reduces complexity, but it will also reduce the strategic value of scenario planning.

Attached are:
  1. Scenario Tool - description
  2. Scenario Planning - a short description for fast Scenario creation
  3. A review for using Scenario as a tool strategy and development
  4. Driving Forces - the underlying tool for creating Scenarios
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