How to Adapt to Uncertainty with an Agile Strategy Map

As Product Managers, we must navigate this time of uncertainty and adapt our strategies accordingly. One approach is to use an Agile Strategy Map, a tool developed by Agile42 in Berlin. This tool divides the areas in which we act into two domains: the Ordered Domain, where planning is straightforward, and the Unordered Domain, where planning is more complicated due to uncertainties. Darren Duarte, an agile coach at Contentful in Berlin, shares his experience and insights about how the Agile Strategy Map can enable companies and teams to continuously evolve, adapt, and improve.

Goals: The Agile Strategy Map starts with the company's vision and mission statements, which are then translated into measurable and achievable goals. The goals are divided into four domains: Simple, Complicated, Complex, and Chaotic, based on their level of predictability and uncertainty.
Themes: The goals are then broken down into themes, which represent the areas of focus and investment for the company. The themes are aligned with the goals and are prioritized based on their value and impact.
Initiatives: The themes are further broken down into initiatives, which are the high-level projects and activities that need to be executed to achieve the goals. The initiatives are prioritized based on their strategic alignment, feasibility, and expected outcomes.
Experiments: The initiatives are then decomposed into experiments, which are the low-level tests and prototypes that need to be conducted to validate the assumptions, hypotheses, and risks associated with the initiatives. The experiments are prioritized based on their learning potential, risk level, and impact.

Alignment: The Agile Strategy Map can help align the goals, themes, initiatives, and experiments across different departments, teams, and products. It can also help align the stakeholders' expectations, priorities, and feedback.
Experimentation: The Agile Strategy Map can encourage experimentation and innovation by providing a safe and structured way to test and learn from new ideas, hypotheses, and risks. It can also foster a culture of continuous improvement and feedback.
Adaptation: The Agile Strategy Map can facilitate adaptation and resilience by providing a flexible and dynamic way to respond to changes, disruptions, and opportunities. It can also help mitigate risks and dependencies by identifying and addressing them early on.
Visualization: The Agile Strategy Map can provide a clear and concise way to visualize the company's strategy, progress, and performance. It can also help communicate the rationale, value, and impact of the initiatives and experiments to the stakeholders.

Define the vision and mission statements: The Agile Strategy Map starts with the company's vision and mission statements, which provide the purpose and direction for the company.
Identify the goals and domains: The vision and mission statements are translated into measurable and achievable goals, which are then categorized into different domains. These domains are the Ordered Domain, which includes areas of the business that are predictable and can be planned for, and the Unordered Domain, which includes areas that are uncertain and unpredictable.
Create a roadmap for the Ordered Domain: In the Ordered Domain, a traditional roadmap can be created to guide the company towards achieving its goals. This roadmap can be broken down into smaller, more manageable pieces, such as quarterly or monthly sprints.
Use Experiments, Necessary Conditions, and Possible Success Factors in the Unordered Domain: Traditional planning may not be effective due to the uncertainty and unpredictability of the environment. Instead, the Agile Strategy Map proposes the use of Experiments, Necessary Conditions (NC), and Possible Success Factors (PSF). Experiments allow companies to test and learn quickly and efficiently, while NCs and PSFs help identify what conditions must be met to achieve success.
Create a double-sided strategy: By having a strategy for both the Ordered and Unordered Domains, companies can better handle uncertainty and dependencies. The Ordered Domain provides a structured plan to work towards achieving goals, while the Unordered Domain allows for flexibility and experimentation.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant changes in business operations, with many companies looking to redesign their supply chains for greater flexibility and risk mitigation.
The Agile Strategy Map is a tool that can help product managers navigate uncertainty and dependencies in both ordered and unordered domains, using objects such as experiments, necessary conditions, and possible success factors.
To use the Agile Strategy Map effectively, companies should start by defining their vision and mission statements, identifying goals and domains, and then creating a double-sided strategy that can handle uncertainties and dependencies.